Banco espera que d\u00f3lar termine o ano em 5,30 reais
O Ita\u00fa elevou suas proje\u00e7\u00f5es para o d\u00f3lar em 2024 e 2025 \u00e0 medida que pioravam as percep\u00e7\u00f5es sobre a posi\u00e7\u00e3o fiscal do Brasil, que at\u00e9 a semana passada n\u00e3o teve impacto na moeda brasileira e a diferenciava do restante do mercado de c\u00e2mbio. O banco espera agora que o d\u00f3lar seja cotado a 5,30 reais este ano (a previs\u00e3o anterior era de 5,15 reais) e a 5,40 reais no pr\u00f3ximo ano (a previs\u00e3o anterior era de 5,25 reais).
De acordo com relat\u00f3rio assinado pelo economista-chefe do Ita\u00fa, Mario Mesquita, a passagem para o patamar de 5,70 reais em 2 de julho se deveu ao aumento dos pr\u00eamios de risco devido aos “desafios fiscais” que levaram ao aumento da taxa de c\u00e2mbio “em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com os enfrentados no in\u00edcio da pandemia.” Os momentos de maior estresse n\u00e3o est\u00e3o distantes.\u201d
Ele\u00a0disse\u00a0esperar\u00a0que\u00a0o\u00a0real\u00a0se valorize um\u00a0pouco,\u00a0mas\u00a0apenas\u00a0se\u00a0forem\u00a0anunciadas medidas\u00a0para\u00a0conter\u00a0os gastos do\u00a0governo,\u00a0como\u00a0os 25,9 bilh\u00f5es de\u00a0reais\u00a0que\u00a0o\u00a0ministro\u00a0da\u00a0Fazenda, Fernando Haddad, disse na semana\u00a0passada\u00a0que\u00a0seriam\u00a0congelados. \u201cSe o cen\u00e1rio\u00a0esperado\u00a0n\u00e3o se\u00a0confirmar,\u00a0poderemos\u00a0regressar\u00a0aos n\u00edveis de deprecia\u00e7\u00e3o e at\u00e9\u00a0ultrapassar\u00a0os m\u00e1ximos recentes\u201d, alertou Mesquita.
O economista-chefe do Ita\u00fa avaliou\u00a0que\u00a0se a \u201calternativa\u201d n\u00e3o\u00a0incluir\u00a0o an\u00fancio de medidas satisfat\u00f3rias\u00a0para\u00a0mitigar\u00a0a deteriora\u00e7\u00e3o das percep\u00e7\u00f5es do\u00a0mercado, significa\u00a0que\u00a0\u201ca\u00a0credibilidade\u00a0relevante\u00a0da estrat\u00e9gia de\u00a0ajuste\u00a0fiscal\u00a0do\u00a0governo\u00a0est\u00e1 prejudicada\u201d. \u201cSe n\u00e3o\u00a0houver\u00a0confian\u00e7a de\u00a0que\u00a0as\u00a0regras\u00a0de\u00a0despesa\u00a0do\u00a0quadro\u00a0ser\u00e3o respeitadas no\u00a0futuro, o\u00a0risco\u00a0de a d\u00edvida p\u00fablica\u00a0regressar\u00a0a\u00a0uma\u00a0trajet\u00f3ria insustent\u00e1vel aumentar\u00e1\u00a0significativamente\u201d, disse\u00a0ele.
Para\u00a0Mesquita, ser\u00e1 necess\u00e1rio\u00a0anunciar\u00a0um\u00a0bloqueio\u00a0de\u00a0pelo\u00a0menos\u00a020\u00a0mil\u00a0milh\u00f5es de\u00a0reais\u00a0(\u201cidealmente\u201d\u00a0mais\u00a0pr\u00f3ximo dos 30\u00a0mil\u00a0milh\u00f5es de\u00a0reais) no\u00a0dia\u00a022 de julho,\u00a0dia\u00a0em\u00a0que\u00a0for\u00a0apresentado\u00a0o\u00a0terceiro\u00a0relat\u00f3rio\u00a0bimestral\u00a0do or\u00e7amento de 2024.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Banco espera que d\u00f3lar termine o ano em 5,30 reaisO Ita\u00fa elevou suas proje\u00e7\u00f5es para o d\u00f3lar em 2024 e<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":526,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_layout":"default_layout","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[117,115,116],"class_list":["post-525","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sem-categoria","tag-fiscal","tag-itau","tag-usd"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/financasemfoco.online\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/525","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/financasemfoco.online\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/financasemfoco.online\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financasemfoco.online\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financasemfoco.online\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=525"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/financasemfoco.online\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/525\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":527,"href":"https:\/\/financasemfoco.online\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/525\/revisions\/527"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financasemfoco.online\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/526"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/financasemfoco.online\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=525"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financasemfoco.online\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=525"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financasemfoco.online\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=525"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}